[Mysteel special interview] the black system will return to the base after the short-term emotional release
发布时间:[2018-3-24 11:28:41] 浏览量:2326次
Xinhua News Agency March 23rd news, U.S. President Trump signed the presidential memorandum 22, according to the "301 survey" results, will import tariffs on goods imported from China, and restrict Chinese enterprises to invest in the United States. Before signing the White House, Trump said to the media that the size of Chinese goods involved in taxation could reach $60 billion.
What impact will it have on domestic steel prices? Look at what Kong Dequn, an analyst at Mysteel Research Center, says.
First of all, let's look back over the past few years in China's export of American steel products and the import of American steel products:
Due to the continuous "double reverse" of China's steel and steel exports, China's exports to the United States accounted for a relatively low proportion of steel in recent years. In 2015, it was 2.16% in 2016 and 1.08% in 2016, while the proportion was 12.22% in 2006.
In 2017, China exported 1 million 180 thousand tons of steel directly to the United States, accounting for only 1.57% of the total export of China's steel.
According to the report of The Effect of Imports of Steel on the National Security released by the US Department of Commerce in February 2018, data show that in 2017, the United States imported 35 million 930 thousand tons of steel and 784 thousand tons of Chinese steel products, ranking eleventh, accounting for only 2.2% of the total imports of the United States.
It can be seen that after repeated anti-dumping and countervailing policies in China, the total amount of steel exported directly to the US is relatively small, so the United States levy 25% tariff policy on China's direct exports to the United States, which has a limited impact on steel products.
But salvation "route curve in recent years Chinese steel exports go", specifically to take entrepot trade in Southeast Asia by way of indirect exports to the United States, or exported to South Korea to export to the United States, the total amount of the export of steel or even greater than the direct export to the United states.
Meanwhile, after announces the increase of import tariff agreement, the United States increased some tariff exemption countries, such as Canada, Mexico, South Korea, Australia, the European Union, etc. China, Russia and Turkey are not listed here. Such targeted policies set off a "trade war" against China in the field of iron and steel. To some extent, the United States has already treated China as a "strategic competitor" at the national level.
So we expect the future, such as the United States continues to increase in quota tariff exemption, will put forward a series of conditions, such as the requirements of steel export concentration of state Chinese certain restrictions on exports, further "blocked" China steel channel into the United states.
Look at China, 2018 steel supply and demand pattern in 2017 and 2017, a slightly different capacity to combat "ground of steel" action, leading to supply end in different stages, structural imbalance, push steel prices rose steadily.
After the second half of last year, steel capacity utilization and the State encourages the development, short production capacity replacement policy, the furnace productivity and output growth compared to last year, production increment can already make up for the stage of the gap, so there is no contradiction between supply and demand this year as last year, so obvious, steel prices will return to the fundamentals of supply and demand. The part of the "go out" steel, will bring pressure on the domestic steel demand.
Today, we see by the news of the impact, each futures nearly all of the cliff down trend, the screw, all coil tiaokongdikai, this is undoubtedly the market for the event focused response and emotional catharsis. But at the spot level, I think it is still necessary to pay close attention to the relationship between supply and demand, which is the decisive factor that affects the trend of the long-term price.
