The postganglionic economy will return to a better trend
发布时间:[2018-3-4 17:12:24] 浏览量:2675次
In February 28th, the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing issued the Chinese purchasing manager index. In February, the manufacturing industry PMI was 50.3%, the ring fell 1 percentage points, and the growth of manufacturing industry slowed down.
Experts say that most of the PMI in the month of the Spring Festival will be adjusted, and the fall of the index in February is a normal fluctuation. With the end of the Spring Festival, the production and operation of enterprises will gradually return to normal, and the economic operation will return to a better basic situation.
Production activities fall down during the Spring Festival
The data showed that manufacturing PMI in February was 50.3%, and the ring fell by 1 percentage points, and the growth of manufacturing industry was slowing down. Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Research Center, said that from the historical data, there will be some adjustments in the PMI of the Spring Festival month. In February, the fall of the index is a normal fluctuation.
"Before and after the Spring Festival is the traditional production off-season of the manufacturing industry, the enterprises generally stop work and reduce production, the market activity is weakened." Zhao Qinghe said that the data also showed the employee's return to the home Festival, the decrease in manufacturing labor volume, the weakening of supply and demand before and after the Spring Festival, the fall of the price index, and the decline of the import and export index.
"Due to the return of the Spring Festival staff to the festival, the production capacity of the manufacturing industry is reduced, and the two indices of employees and suppliers have declined." Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of communications, said that in the five index of PMI, the biggest decline in production index is the main reason for the decline of PMI in manufacturing industry.
"Enterprise production activities fell, the production index dropped, the drop down composite index PMI0.7 percentage points, is the main cause of the PMI index fall." Chen Zhongtao, an analyst at the China Logistics Information Center, said the Spring Festival in the Spring Festival was more affected than the previous year, so the index fell relatively clearly. From the point of view of industry, the consumer goods industry was released earlier due to the holiday effect. The PMI index dropped 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the basic raw material industry is also relatively large, which is more than 1 percentage points.
In addition, the PMI of small businesses in February was 44.8%, the lowest since March 2016, a 3.7 percentage point drop from last month, the largest monthly decline since June 2012. Lian Ping said that the small and medium enterprise is obviously affected by seasonal, small and medium-sized enterprises to withstand greater pressure. In addition to the impact of the weakening of seasonal demand, the financing and financing problems of small and medium-sized enterprises are still obvious. "The decrease of PMI in small enterprises is significantly greater than that in previous years, showing that there is a downward pressure on the business operation at the beginning of the year, which needs to be paid attention to." He said.
Some experts say that the downlink of PMI data is more than expected and needs to be paid attention to. Deng Haiqing, an analyst at Kyushu securities, said manufacturing PMI in February was the lowest since August 2016. Among them, the purchase price of the main raw materials and the price of the factory have descended significantly, reflecting the decline of PPI and the possible decline in profit growth of industrial enterprises.
High technology manufacturing industry continues to speed up its development
It is worth mentioning that in February, under the background of a marked slowdown in production activities, the equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech industry were less affected by the Spring Festival factor, and the index did not decline or rise.
Zhao Qinghe said that, under the impact of the policy measures to promote the development of strategic emerging industries, the vitality of high-tech enterprises is further released. The PMI of the high-tech manufacturing industry was 54%, higher than the 0.8 and 3.7 percentage points in the last month and the manufacturing sector respectively. At the same time, the expansion of the equipment manufacturing industry was accelerating, with the equipment manufacturing industry PMI of 51% in February, higher than the 1 and 0.7 percentage points in the manufacturing sector, respectively.
At present, the rapid development of high-tech industry has shown a continuation trend. In the National Bureau of statistics released on the same day of the "People's Republic of China 2017 national economic and social development statistical bulletin" in the "new energy new industry new industry to accelerate the growth of" part, data show that the increase of manufacturing industry in 2017 annual high technology value growth of 13.4%, accounting for above scale industrial added value accounted for 12.7%. The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 11.3%, accounting for 32.7% of the industrial added value above the scale. The annual output of new energy vehicles was 690 thousand, an increase of 51.2% over the previous year, the output of smart TV increased by 96 million 660 thousand, increased by 3.8%, the output of industrial robots increased by 130 thousand, the growth rate of civilian vehicles increased by 81%, and the number of civilian drones increased by 2 million 900 thousand.
The director of the National Bureau of statistics, Sheng Lai Yun, said that this shows that with the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure, industry extends to the high end of the value chain. In addition to the rapid growth of value-added and equipment manufacturing value added in the high-tech manufacturing industry in the year, the investment structure is also continuing to be optimized. In 2017, the investment in high-tech industry increased by 15.9% over the previous year, and the investment in industrial technology transformation increased by 16.3%. The growth rate was 8.7 and 9.1 percentage points faster than that of fixed assets investment (excluding farmers). From the perspective of the overall environment, China's economic growth has been driven by the transformation from industrial driving to industrial and service sectors, and from the investment driven to consumption and investment.
Many experts said that the February data also showed that the market demand was relatively good, and the production activities of large enterprises remained relatively stable and so on. Although the purchase of raw materials price index fell to the lowest point since the second half of last year, driven by the enterprise price index dropped correspondingly, but the gap between the two index significantly narrowed to 4.2 percentage points, the lowest value since the second half of last year, reflecting the manufacturing enterprises due to price increases in raw materials cost pressures tend to ease.
Enterprises are optimistic about future development expectations
